Felix Drinkall
Felix Drinkall
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Time Machine GPT
A series of point-in-time language models designed to remain uninformed about future information, addressing temporal bias in LLMs for time-series forecasting applications.
Felix Drinkall
,
Eghbal Rahimikia
,
Janet B. Pierrehumbert
,
Stefan Zohren
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Stories that (are) Move(d by) Markets: A Causal Exploration of Market Shocks and Semantic Shifts across Different Partisan Groups
We demonstrate that semantic shifts in news language can be causally linked to financial market shocks, with partisan differences influencing predictive power. Text signals prove particularly valuable during unexpected events like COVID-19.
Felix Drinkall
,
Janet B. Pierrehumbert
,
Stefan Zohren
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DOI
Forecasting Credit Ratings: A Case Study where Traditional Methods Outperform Generative LLMs
Demonstrates that traditional machine learning methods combining fundamental data with text embeddings outperform current LLMs at credit rating forecasting, highlighting limitations of LLMs for multimodal financial tasks.
Felix Drinkall
,
Janet B. Pierrehumbert
,
Stefan Zohren
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Forecasting COVID-19 Caseloads Using Unsupervised Embedding Clusters of Social Media Posts
Using transformer-based language models to extract features from Reddit posts for COVID-19 forecasting, outperforming traditional epidemiological data in predicting upward trend signals.
Felix Drinkall
,
Stefan Zohren
,
Janet B. Pierrehumbert
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